Financial Betting Articles

Happy New Year ChoiceCuts readers! And it's a very Happy New Year here at ChoiceOdds, where we are proud to announce the firm's acquisition by MF Global Ltd - the world's leading futures and options broker.

It's time to wipe the slate clean, make some resolutions, keep your eyes on the prize and think up some ill-fated forecasts for the bumpy hack on the knock-kneed mare that is 2008.

And what could be more exciting? After jumping out of the frying pan of 2007, we land slap-bang in the fire of 2008 where $100 barrels of oil, a seemingly interminable credit crisis aftermath and the small matter of looming economic catastrophe are waiting to burn us on the bots.

A popular past-time among the more morbid at this time of year is to hold a sweepstake in which all the participants get to name the celebrity they think is going to peg it first in the next 12 months. Winner takes all. Now not for one moment would I engage is such tasteless activities - certainly not after a decade of disappointment holding a slip with the Queen Mum's name on it. You see it can be devilishly hard to predict what lies ahead over the course of a whole year. Why, in this country peering in to the middle distance and claiming that Summer will follow Spring is classed as going out on a limb.

But if you're not interested in crazy crystal ball gazing and want to make the markets work for you, then you need to focus on the immediate future. Just like those far fetched resolutions, the only way you are going to crack them is if you take them one day at a time. Luckily, ChoiceOdds have the short-term bet markets to satisfy your appetite - and with an interest rate decision on the cards this week, it's time to tuck in.

But before that, Tuesday and Wednesday see important news from the retail sector. The market will take notice, particularly if seasonal shopping was as disastrous as some are hinting. And there is interesting job, consumer credit and house market data from the States. But of course the main event is how those egg-heads at the MPC play God with our lives Thursday, by tinkering with the interest rate.

The Shadow MPC (a cabal of underworld economists hell-bent on taking over the world!...alas not that interesting, just a bunch of economists at the Institute of Economic Affairs) have already voted for a cut 5 to 4. But how will those with the real reins of power react? Those baying for a cut claim there is a real need to forestall a slowing economy. Plus the housing market is slowing down and financial services business volumes are the lowest since 1991.

But the simple answer is its more complicated than that. Evidence points to the housing slow-down being a supply-side problem with mortgages. Mortgage lenders have tightened their lending conditions in the wake of the credit crisis so fewer mortgages are being granted. However, this hasn't affected demand for mortgages just yet so when credit conditions ease, as they should over the coming months, the housing market should pick up or at least stay flat. Furthermore, the 3 month interbank lending rate has fallen nearly 1% since the last interest cut so financial firms may see the burden of the credit crunch lift before too long.

It might be bleak midwinter but the markets aren't hibernating. Its too cold to head outside so bask in the glow of the monitor screen and get the year off to a flyer with the greatest financial bookmaker known to Man, ChoiceOdds.com

The FTSE finished the year up 2.31% on the start of the year. Sounds quite sedate really – except it traded in a 13.84% range.

In comparison, the DAX traded in a whopping 25.13% range (based on 1st Jan prices) but most of this was one way, with the end of year price 22.29% up on the start of the year price.

The DOW also managed to finish the year up (6.43%) but that was way off its high of 14,164.53 ticks which represents a percentage rise of 13.65%.

Never fear - there are 80 more New Years to celebrate this year, from the Sikh Hola Mohalla to the neo-pagan Samhain.

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