Financial Betting Articles

Have you noticed a funny thing in recent years. Didn't everybody used to be a Monetarist? When did everybody - and I'm including the NeoNeoNeoNeoNEOCons here - suddenly become a Keynesian? Did I blink and miss a Socialist Coup over at the Treasury Department...?

"What? Buying all of Wall Street's bad debt not enough for you? Then let us bail out ALL the credit-happy over-mortgage guys and gals out there..." What next, a new label for the Statue of Liberty, "Bring us your overdrafts, your spending habits, your huddled masses of unopened bills...?"

Not that I'm complaining. If ever we needed a Great Depression expert in the Fed now's the time and Bernanke and Paulsen are making quite the stimulus partnership. As of today millions of Americans will be seeing the first tranches of the government's Tax Rebates hitting their accounts. $50b by the end of May, $170b over the next two years. Can it stave off recession? Is it too late to stave off recession? Are we in a recession and can this get us out of it?

Opinion is divided into two camps. Those that think it is too little too late and those that are wrong. Merryls believe it could boost the US economy by up to 0.5% this quarter, Bank of America by up to 1% and Goldman's by up to 2%. (Perhaps it was a mistake for the canteen staff to reintroduce the caffeinated coffee at Goldman's so soon.)

With some limited liquidity back in banking markets, the FOMC likely to cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday night, and a weak dollar boosting imports right now there's a slim chance that the emergency Tax Rebate package could lift the economy. There's also a statistical possibility that you could be hit by a meteorite but strangely it never seems to happen.

Still, by all accounts, it looks like the least worst option. Somehow, though, it all feels a little optimistic. The last house price decline lasted six years in the States. That means this one should last till 2012. Not the cheeriest thought.

Faced with rising food bills, rising energy bills and a fall in property prices, paying off the mortgage might be the average American's least worst option as well. Except that that new Wii Fit game looks awfully tempting... Then there's a new TV to go with it, no point in playing those great games on our old box... Ooh, and I forgot, I need to buy the Wii in the first place... So much tax rebate and so little time.

For now, put down your Wii controller, pick up your mouse and point it at ChoiceOdds.com

We're going to the moon! The FTSE has risen an average of 20.5 points a day so far in April.

FTSE volatility is down to an average daily trading range of just 97 points in April, below 100 for the first month this year.

The Dow Jones is rising healthily, climbing an average 33.1 points a day in April.

Contrary to rumour, a duck's quack does echo. I keep my ducks in a cave just to prove this point.

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