Financial Betting Articles

A joke.

The wife of a CEO decides to surprise her husband by turning up at his office unannounced. She walks in on him only to find his secretary straddled across him behind his desk. Without skipping a beat the CEO dictates, "...And finally, gentlemen, credit crunch or no credit crunch we can't run this company with only one chair!"

Did you know that 78% of all statistics are made up on the spot? Or is that 81%? Well, either way it's a lot. Suddenly we're all interested in statistics. The worst slump since the 1990's... The worst slump since the 1970's... The worst slump since the Depression...! Quarterly growth is down to 0.2%. Over half of businesses intend to reduce headcount (I think that's a euphemism for sacking people - get a backbone).

My favourite statistic right now - my number one statistic! - is that divorce rates in the City are expected to climb with the downturn. This is because the gold-digging b*tches are getting out before the credit crunch really bites.

Really?

Yeah. Really. It said so in the papers. And not just the tabloids. In the big ones that are hard to read on crowded trains.

Except, isn't there a disconnect between the statistic and the facts driving the statistics?

Consider, if you will, other interpretations of these statistics:

• The credit crunch is putting the bread winner (mostly men here, sorry Sisters) under increased stress which is feeding back into the marriage and voila divorce?
• The bread winner is working longer hours to make the same money as before and voila divorce?
• The woman was standing by the man whilst he made his stash of cash from the City and now he's seen the best of it she feels she's fulfilled her bit of the bargain and voila...?
• The man, his ego dented by a loss of earnings, is seeking refuge in his secretary and voila...?
• A lot of these men are ghastly City types who had divorce coming and if they can't even put a million quid plus on the table every year she's got better things to do than to go through the motions of the marriage and voila...
• The man, broken that he can't give the woman everything he ever promised her, contrives to make her divorce him to release her from the marital bonds to seek her fortune and happiness elsewhere and voila... (Oh, alright, I made that one up)

Now. Don't get me wrong. It could well be that they're just a bunch of gold-digging b*tches who are moving on to pastures gold. Well, more fool the men for falling for the chavs in the first place.

But, and this is a big but, there really are half a dozen spins we could put on the key statistic that divorce rates will rise in the City during the downturn - oh and it is lazy and sloppy thinking to lump unquestioningly for the gold-digger argument.

This is the danger with all the stats flying around right now. Journalists seizing on a headline figure and using it as a stick to beat us with, declaring the end of the world as they know it. But the onus is on them - and us! - to put our own interpretation on them.

And the quality of that interpretation could be the key to trading through these volatile times.

(Oh, and if you're married to a CEO - always phone ahead.)

Seen a stat that stands out? Use it at ChoiceOdds.com

I know you won't believe any market statistics I give you this week so you aren't getting any. Instead:

The tip of a 1/3 inch long hour-hand on a wristwatch travels at 0.00000275 mph.

Lightning strikes 6,000 times every minute.

When glass breaks, the crack moves at more than 3,000 miles per hour. To photograph the event a camera must shoot at a speed of a millionth of a second.

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