Financial Betting Articles

"Tootle-toot!!" The unmistakable sound of me blowing my own trumpet. As the self-proclaimed Dizzy Gillespie of financial updates, I will alert you to two perfectly placed coup de comment. As predicted, the FTSE shifted up 30.5 ticks in the face of UK Consumer Confidence rising 2 points in April. And behold! Miserly spending growth of only 0.3% (while incomes grew 0.7%) saw the US market stumble down the stairs, finishing -57.3 ticks. I'm smugger than George Osborne - am I heading for a fall?

The hot scoop is monetary policy. The US Fed, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank are all poised with their twitchy fingers on the interest rate dial. These have a huge economic impact so the markets are watchful. The word is the Fed will leave things as they are and the BoE will twitch rates up 0.25%. Markets have already factored in these assumptions and any deviation will certainly cause a stir.

People are describing the 25 basis point hike as 'nailed on' - but 'people' said the Titanic was unsinkable. While it's odds on, I spy two icebergs on the horizon.

Firstly, and most implausibly, the Old Ladies of Threadneedle Street may balk at a rise, perhaps heeding slow-down indicators such as mortgage approvals being the lowest in almost a year and record levels of people becoming insolvent.

Some wags are even suggesting a half point rise isn't out of the question, in the face of 3.1% inflation and Mervyn King's comments about the money supply. It would be one way to give the irksome British economy the slap-down it's been asking for. Perversely, such a big rise may push the FTSE down in shock then up as market players figure that it's the tonic the UK economy needs to beat inflation and perpetuate its golden era of growth.

So whatever happens, don't forget I told you so.

On the last 6 Fed announcement days, Wall Street has finished up 5 times. The last announcement on 21st March saw the market range over 200 ticks, finishing +158.54.

The MPC last raised UK rates on January 11th and the FTSE saw high volatility, with the price range covering 102.9 ticks, compared to an average daily range of 46.13 for the rest of that week. .

In the two weeks following the last UK rate rise, the pound rose almost 4 and a half cents against the dollar

Mercurial producer Cubby Broccoli refused to release 6 Bond films, citing reasons like they made his hair hurt or that there was too much air in shot.

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