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Interest Rate decision hangs in the balance

Everyone knows Yanks are greedy - great big greedy guts. That is why last week they had Thanksgiving - a holiday based around stuffing yourself stupid, so you can get some practise in a month before Crimbo. In fact, hot on the heels of that other made-up holiday candy-gorge-fest Halloween, it seems that Stateside the whole calendar is stuffed full of calorific events. But for the US economy (and elsewhere besides) greed isn't just good - it's essential.

And the US Federal Reserve has to do what it can to boost consumer rapacity and quick. It has already cut interest rates but it's widely touted that it will keep cutting to stoke the fires of consumerism. It's what is needed to stave off the nasty recession that is in the wings. It seems pretty cut and dried Stateside, but over in the UK the Bank of England face a much tougher decision.

Most commentators think the Bank's next move will be to cut UK rates but no one knows if it'll be sooner or later. The credit crunch is starting to bite in the real world and the worrying data is trickling through. For one thing a house market slowdown is in the offing with October new mortgages 37% down on the same period in 2006. With that and other sectors of the economy running out of steam, sooner seems to be the answer.

But (and there is always a but) the MPC are still rather worried about inflation. They voted 7 to 2 to hold interest rates at the last time of asking. Top of their concerns is the rampant oil price . Winter demand, restricted supply and the devaluation of the dollar have all contributed to oil prices rocketing 45% since August. With inflation still stubbornly high, some think rates won't come down until February.

And with all this interest rate jiggery-pokery, foreign exchange rates are crashing around like my flatmate at 3 in the morning on a Wednesday night (for shame!). The dollar is looking limp and tumbling to lows against the Euro and Yen. The fallout for the Eurozone economy could well be dire if the expensive Euro puts the brakes on its growing exports - so the DAX can't remain aloof forever.

With markets like these, all day, everyday, who needs some silly summer time kick-about nonsense over on the Continent? You versus the markets - up to the challenge? Find out at ChoiceOdds.com.

Lies, Damn Lies and ...

Volatility is back. Last week the FTSE moved over 100 ticks on four days. From the start of September it only moved 100 ticks on 6 other days.



In November the DOW is averaging a 153.1 tick daily move. That’s whammy.



The DAX is livening up too, moving on average 84.2 ticks each day last week compared to an average of 46.2 from the start of September.



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