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Markets still uncertain about long term economic outlook

Everyone thought that if the credit crisis was done and dusted it was perfectly fine to go back in to the water. Dutifully equity indices trundled happily back up to their record highs. But wishful thinking is a dangerous thing. Mounting bad news from the US economy had traders scratching their heads and wondering if everything was really so fine and dandy. Then on Friday we saw a Caterpillar that broke the camel's back.

The Caterpillar in question is the US manufacturer of building equipment and a bellwether for US and global economic growth. The company's profit warning sent the US market in to free-fall, shedding 366.94 at the close. The simple reasoning being that if Caterpillar sales are poor, fewer building projects are expected and this is because businesses don't see the economy expanding as quickly as it has been. It also shows that the US housing market is unlikely to drag itself out of the doldrums any time soon.

So what's the rumpus? The outlook for the markets is interesting. Many commentators expect the European markets to follow the DOW down today. Currencies are also seeing a lot of action with dollar weakness being the big story. Poor US job and manufacturing data and soft inflation figures are ramping up expectations of a Fed rate cut from 4.75% next week. That’s led to the dollar trading near all-time lows against the Euro.

Oil is also grabbing headlines with Brent reaching a record high of £84.88 per barrel on Thursday. In all the price of oil has quadrupled since 2002. As ever, it's a question of supply and demand. Supply could be disrupted as Turkey demands the Kurds of northern Iraq stop attacking their army ('demand' as in pulverise with artillery bombardment). Cross-border tensions heightened over the weekend with 12 more Turkish soldiers killed.

Similarly, rampant Chinese and Indian economic expansion has led to unprecedented global demand. OPEC could meet in November to discuss whether they could see their way clear to squeeze out a few more drops of the black stuff. As oil is priced in dollars the weakness of the greenback is also pushing the price of the commodity. All this has left me smiling as I've got 2 half used bottles of Castrol GTX in my garage I bought in 1989.

Indices quaking at the prospect of recession, currencies zipping about in response to key data, the price of oil rising so fast it makes your head spin? All in all, this week has it all and if you want it all you've got to give you're all - at ChoiceOdds.com, the best place to bet on the financial markets.

Lies, Damn Lies and ...

Friday saw the biggest points fall on the DOW since 9th August when it fell 387.18. After that the DOW fell for the next 5 trading days.



The Euro has appreciated by 7.72% against the dollar since the start of the year.



The pound is also buoyed against the dollar with its average daily price being about $2 for 25 days now.



84% of Britons would pay someone to come and take the bins out.

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