There is a (rather good) joke that I can't get out of my mind this weekend. I'll tell the joke then explain why...
A journalist visits an order of Trappist monks where he is the father Abbott's guest at a special annual dinner. There is a long table down the middle of the dining hall and on each side sits Trappist monks eating in silence, as they do.
After a while a lone monk stands up. The room goes quiet. He clears his throat then says, "16." A titter goes up around the room and he sits down.
Five minutes later the same. Another monk stands and this time says "29". There is a roar of laughter and he sits down.
Five minutes later, again, the same happens. A monk stands and, barely able to hide his mirth, announces "42". Well this brings the house down and there is almost 5 minutes of laughter and tear-wiping from the assembled crowd.
The journalist can contain himself no longer and asks the father Abbott what's going on. "Ah", he replies, "it is very simple. Being Trappist monks they have all taken a vow of silence. However, they are allowed to say something very very briefly once a year. Now, they all like a bit of a laugh so what they've done is memorised lots of jokes which they refer to by numbers. They mention the number and everyone enjoys the memory of the joke. Simple."
The journalist is taken with this and asks, "Could I say a number?"
The Father Abbott beams with pleasure and says, "Of course - they'd all get an extra joke. Delightful."
So the journalist stands and taps his glass for attention. All eyes turn on him with suspicious curiousity.
"Erm, 116" Says the journalist.
Nothing. The monks share confused looks. Then suddenly - uncontrolled hilarity breaks out. The monks are thumping tables, thumping themselves, thumping each other. People can't breathe for laughing. One monk grabs his chest, fearing death at such mirth. People are falling off their chairs, grabbing each other, one even has to make a dash for the toilets. And far from ebbing the laughter goes on for five minutes, ten minutes, fifteen minutes...!
The journalist's initial pleasure is turning to bewilderment and he turns to the Father Abbott and asks, "I don't understand why they like mine so much?"
The Father Abbott wipes a tear from his eye and says, "Oh well done my boy, good choice. We've never heard that one before."
I thangyou.
Well, isn't there some twisted version of that happening in Jeddah this week? Aren't the Western leaders - Gordon Brown et al - telling the OPEC leaders ones they've heard way too often? "The high price of oil is killing us." "So?" "It's causing inflation." "And?" "You MUST increase productivity." "Erm, no we mustn't."
Turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Oil is a wasting asset. Once it starts to get drilled these countries have a finite income from it. Why - sorry - WHY would they want to get less money for that? Who walks into their bosses office and asks for a pay cut? Who?
What does this mean for us? Well, the impact at the pumps, on haulage, energy prices, they've been well-documented in the media, sometimes even intelligently. But for us? It means traders are going to be whamming the price of oil, the dollar, Wall Street, the FTSE, all over the shop. A problem or an opportunity? Depends if you bought or sold volatility. Of course, you can do both here at ChoiceOdds.
Enjoy the markets as much as the OPEC leaders are enjoying the look on their guests' faces at ChoiceOdds.com
Things are indeed looking shakey in the States. The Dow has already dropped 795.6 points this month, falling on nine out of fifteen trading days.
Since the beginning of the year the Dow has come off nearly 1420 points, a fall of 10.7%
And the volatility is there to take advantage of. Wall Street has traded in an average daily range of 292 points so far in June, up from 251 points last month and 274 in April.
NYMEX Oil is also known as "Texas Light Sweet" because of the low level of sulphur it contains. It is definitely sweeter than Brent. And I know, I've tried them both.
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