Imperturbable, undeviating and relentless. The markets charge onward and upward - unflapped and unflappable in the face of cautionary comments from economic analysts everywhere. In 25 years, lounging in my vineyard in Yorkshire, picking off marauding hoodies with my laser gun, I might wistfully reflect on how much easier and predictable things were in the late noughties.
On the one hand, the trend is your friend. But the trend is free and easy with his friendship and that means that the real money is there for those who can see the buck in the trend. Last week's Bank of England rumbling suggested that the CPI figure on Tuesday was not quite good enough to remove the threat of another rate hike. Interestingly, Tuesday was the only down day on the FTSE last week.
Spotting the unusual before it happens is your key to cashing in. Look left now. Each piece of news can spike a market 10, 20 points in a minute. After the hysteria and overreaction, the indices sometimes go right back to where they were. Worth a 5 minute punt? Indubitably.
Taking a quick look at the bigger picture, inflationary pressure continues to mount here and Stateside. UK retail sales were higher than expected in May. Worryingly, oil prices are creeping up, boosting inflation in the gas-guzzling US of A. Turns out launching a war of aggression and then trying to isolate the popularly-elected Palestinian government has made everyone in the Middle East a little crabby. Some folks would think that they didn’t want the US’s assistance in liberating their oil fields from the tyranny of self-interested tyrants.
Any-who I'm watching the markets with morbid interest; what goes up must come down. There are a few warning signs emerging. We might see a gentle slow down. But there is that chance of a wonderful, cataclysmic free-fall. That magical time of wildfire panic, of fragile confidence shattered and hubris smote. The resignation written on traders' faces that says "The game is up". And the sweet victory of those few who had shorted the market.
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The FTSE closed flat on Friday - the first time since 2nd September 2003 and only the third time in nearly 12 years.
From the start of the year to last Monday, Wall Street had put on 9.8%; by close of play Thursday it had shed 3.2%. Friday saw it add 1.3% - will it make back the rest this week?
On Wall Street, last year there were 32 more up trading days than down days. This year so far there are also 32 more up days than down days.
If you take our £5 and land it on three winning 33/1s, you'll have the cash for a new Ferrari F430 Spider, with enough spare to buy an Audi TT for the other half ee.
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