Financial Betting Articles

A Tale of Two Indices - What another rip-roaring week that was?! With the dollar looking weaker than a kitten right now, I bet you're glad I tipped you off back in June that all hell was going to break loose? What do you mean you were too busy - too busy to make money? Don't come crying to me with excuses. I just put it out there, what you do with it is your business.

The dollar is suffering because the Fed don't look likely to raise interest rates whereas other central banks are. The Fed has every right to be holding rates where they are in the face of worrying US economic data. For a start, last week say Standard and Poor's more than double their projection of the losses from $5.7 billion of sub-prime debt. Worry about the US housing market was compounded by news that US retail sales had unexpectedly dropped 0.9% in the last quarter. Plus the 'credit crunch' affecting bond markets in general is concerning. The bond market has seen an upward revaluation of risk, making borrowing more expensive and threatening to dampen private equity's debt-fuelled acquisition frenzy.

Perhaps it's supreme confidence in the Fed's monetary policy or the self-deception of US investors, but none of these bad omens have bridled Wall Street. Friday saw the DOW hit a record high of 13,982.93 - and it seemed like only yesterday that I was raving about it crashing through 13,000. Meteoric doesn't do it justice. 11.6% growth since the start of the year would have anyone drooling - of course that is slim pickings compared to what you could make bagging the moves at ChoiceOdds.

And the FTSE is showing similar confidence. Since mid-March, the trend has been upwards and relentless. With the UK economy closing in on a frankly ridiculous 60th quarter of growth (bear in mind the previous record was just 15 quarters!) you might ask where will it all end? We've weathered the Asian, Russian and hedge fund crises with aplomb. But would we be immune to a US slowdown this time around?

In the short term, the London market is often affected by the direction of its New York cousin. Sharp moves are seen at 2.30pm when they open up stateside. This week is chock full of important inflation, housing and employment data - yet more grist to the mill. If things start looking gloomier for the US and rosy in the UK, we might see the two stock markets moving in different directions before too long.

FX and indices in one place? The Choice of fixed odds and binary betting? Make your view count at ChoiceOdds.com.

In March, UK RPI inflation was 4.8%, its highest since July 1991. It has been falling for the last two months to 4.3% in May. On Tuesday we will see if the trend continues or if further rate rises will be seen sooner rather than later.

The FTSE has put on 1.65% so far this month compared to 3.63% growth on Wall Street.

Wall Street's gain of 282.4 ticks on Thursday was the largest daily gain since 17 March 2003.

This weeks 'celebs' what I have seen: Ginger one from League of Gentlemen, cockney actor Danny Dyer and Peter Stringfellow

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